Michael P. Kay

Publications

Corresponding Articles: 9

Michael P. Kay authored and/or contributed to the following articles/publications.

Climatological estimates of daily local nontornadic severe thunderstorm probability for the United States

The probability of nontornadic severe weather event reports near any location in the United States for any day of the year has been estimated. Gaussian smoothers in space and time have been applied to the observed record of severe thunderstorm occurrence from 1980 to 1994 to produce daily maps and annual cycles at any point. Many aspects of this...

Summer Season Verification of the First NWS Operational WRF Model Forecasts from the NOAA Coastal Storms Initiative Project in Northeast Florida

The design and evaluation of a measure of forecast consistency for the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product

DEFINING OBSERVATION FIELDS FOR VERIFICATION OF SPATIAL FORECASTS OF CONVECTION: Part 2

Implementing and evaluating the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model at NWS WFO Jacksonville, Florida

Subjective verification of numerical models as a component of a broader interaction between research and operations

Systematic subjective verification of precipitation forecasts from two numerical models is presented and discussed. The subjective verification effort was carried out as part of the 2001 Spring Program, a seven-week collaborative experiment conducted at the NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and the NWS/Storm Prediction Center, with p...

SUBJECTIVE VERIFICATION OF NUMERICAL MODELS AS A COMPONENT OF A BROADER INTERACTION BETWEEN RESEARCH AND OPERATIONS

THE IMPACT OF PARAMETERIZED SHALLOW CONVECTION ON PRE-DEEP-CONVECTIVE SOUNDING STRUCTURES IN THE ETA MODEL

COMBINING OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INFORMATION TO IMPROVE FORECAST EVALUATION